Logisticians share lessons learned at symposium

By Mr. Daniel James OBoyle (AMCOM)December 3, 2014

Department of Defense Maintenance Symposium
(Photo Credit: U.S. Army) VIEW ORIGINAL

"Good demand forecasting is the most important thing in controlling the level of

inventory," said Jim Erdman, Senior Vice President, Penske Logistics.

Following Erdman's quote, Mark Moe, AMCOM Logistics Center and Chief Warrant Officer Leonte Cardona served as panel members discussed using mission-based data and analytics to forecast supply actions that support future maintenance operations at the Department of Defense Maintenance Symposium Wednesday in Birmingham.

Specifically, the duo focused on the premise that while the primary maintenance planning factor used is flying hours, environmental factors also have a significant impact on the maintenance required to keep a weapon system operationally available. Further, as budgets decrease, maintenance forecast accuracy must be effectively communicated to the supply community to ensure that maintainers have the right part at the right time with optimal inventory levels.

"If data are captured and categorically analyzed, the possible benefits of mission-based forecasting would result in a unit not having to 're-invent the wheel' when called upon to deploy," Cardona said. "By being able to forecast parts needs a unit can order what is needed ahead of time, thereby increasing the value of every dollar spent because a unit is not simply ordering to keep their stock levels up. With forward-looking demand analysis, a unit allows the wholesale system to 'right size' current stock levels and develop stock requirements based on the unit's Area of Responsibility."

Moe enlightened the panel's audience with the AMCOM Logistics Center's Cost-Wise Readiness efforts.

"It's good that we measure where we over forecast and under forecast parts requirements," Moe said. "Our goal is to tighten that shot group, because we can never be perfect at forecasting. For example, we were not able to forecast events like a hailstorm in Afghanistan when we needed millions of dollars in additional spare parts to recover from that event."

In terms of aviation stock availability, the Center is well above the 85-percent goal.

"Our non-mission capable supply time, across the Army is three to four percent," Moe said. "So we are doing pretty well, but we should also focus on another area of opportunity, which is reducing the demands for spare parts and on non-mission capable maintenance time."

The center manages 18,000 items, while the Top 200 items account for 80 percent of the Army Working Capital Fund expenditures.

"Our goal is to reduce why we have to have maintenance -- why we have to have spare parts," Moe said. "If we go after root causes, that is the gift that keeps giving because every year, you don't have to buy and consume as many parts."

The Center is also measuring Post Investment and Implementation Analysis to determine cost-avoidance advantages by way of higher data-level fidelity.

"Forecast accuracy is important, but we at AMCOM are also focused on Cost-Wise Readiness on a much broader scale: Where is our money really going, and how can we reduce our expenditures without sacrificing readiness?"