THE ARMY UNIVERSITY, FORT LEAVENWORTH, Kansas – The Russian invasion of Ukraine has deepened security concerns in the Indo-Pacific and prompted drastic policy changes across the European community.
The Army University’s Command and General Staff College Cultural and Area Studies Office hosted a panel to discuss the War in Ukraine’s Impact on Indo-Pacific Strategies on September 12, 2024.
Dr. Mahir J. Ibrahimov, CASO Director, introduced the topic, citing a complex combination of security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and other factors shaping the Indo-Pacific strategies in response to the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Col. Satoshi Masaka, Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force, military attaché, Embassy of Japan, outlined how the Japanese public opinion has changed since the start of the war in Ukraine.
“Over 70% of the Japanese people support raising the defense budget” he said.
The Japanese national defense strategy defines Russia as a serious concern, Masaka stated.
Masaka framed his remarks around Russia, China and North Korea’s support of one another and the global impact the invasion has had.
“Russia gives an economic opportunity to China, through trade, which reached $240B in 2023, up 64% since 2021,” he emphasized.
This trade includes importing critical components from China for Russia’s war machines.
Meanwhile, North Korea supports Russia with armed transport and artillery shells and other military capabilities enabling Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine.
Mr. Lars Geismann, political analyst, Embassy of Germany, spoke about Germany’s adaptation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, their engagement in the Indo-Pacific, and how the two theatres are interconnected.
“The invasion prompted Germany to make significant policy shifts and massive investment in neglected military capabilities and defense,” he said.
He highlighted Germany’s support of Ukraine as one of its’ largest weapons suppliers, their efforts to rebuild Ukraine’s energy grid, and provision of humanitarian aid, including social welfare for 1.2 million refugees.
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Germany’s commitments in the Indo-Pacific include having a German military liaison officer in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and implementation of a new approach through their first-ever China Strategy.
“We continue to share interests on stability and security for Indo-Pacific with partners in the region," Geismann.
Mr. Peter Wood, senior China analyst of the Foreign Military Studies Office, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, focused on China’s lessons from the War in Ukraine, emphasized the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army are learning organizations.
“China’s leadership has made significant moves to react to new technologies and to speed up modernization, like the military civil fusion strategy it adopted in 2009 that came out of briefings their senior leaders were receiving,” he said.
China hasn’t fought a large-scale war since its war with Vietnam in 1991, he said.
It has carefully monitored how conflicts have proceeded around the world and has built an entire apparatus intended to reflect the latest trends in modernization.
“The PLA is constantly learning and adapting from various other wars,” he said.
According to Wood, lessons included the failure of Russia due to the lack of strategic logistics, struggles with national mobilization and conscription, issues rebuilding its defense industry in stride, and dealing with the threat of sanctions and food securities.
“China has, across the board, put into place, the regulatory, legal, etc., mechanisms that they need to avoid the problems that we’ve seen that the Russian have struggled with," he said.
Wood also emphasized the importance of the information domain, explaining Russia's initial loss in the space.
He explained how the entire Chinese Communist Party organization is built around influence by information, internally and externally directed.
“An interesting parallel between Putin and Xi Jinping is how they talk about creating sovereign internets to shut out foreign influence on news information, which Russia had to sprint to implement," Wood said.
The main lesson China is taking from the war in Ukraine isn’t an individual lesson, but more a validation of what they were already doing.
The largest operational level take away was the lack of sufficient stock and munitions and at the tactical level, it was the importance of basic soldier skills and leadership skills for officers and NCOs.
“In 2018, China invested a whole new set of soldier systems committing to personal protection including cold weather gear, which Russians didn’t have when they invaded Ukraine," Wood said.
The panel's question-and-answer session started with questions referencing the impact of the Ukraine war on U.S. adversaries’ views that future conflict will involve much more than military operations, such as a competition between each side’s comprehensive national powers.
Col. (GS) Stefan Busch, Army attache from the Embassy of Germany, Washington, D.C. shared insight in support of Germany’s perspective towards the topic.
This panel is part of a seminar series discussing issues of operational and strategic importance to the U.S., which CASO, in coordination with CGSC, universities, think tanks, interagency and other partners, conducts regularly.
Each panel is livestreamed on social media reaching audiences at Army schools, Centers of Excellence, regionally aligned forces, Security Forces Assistance Brigades, in addition to deployed or deploying units, Joint, Interagency, Multinational, partners and more.
The video recording of this panel, and all past CASO panels, can be viewed on the CASO website, the CGSC Facebook or YouTube Playlist channel.
CASO Presents — War in Ukraine: Impact on Indo-Pacific Strategies (YouTube)
CASO Presents — War in Ukraine: Impact on Indo-Pacific Strategies (Facebook)
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