An official website of the United States government Here's how you know

Atmospheric Effects Team uses state-of-the-art technology to predict the weather, critical in Army testing 

By Rachel PonderDecember 5, 2024

(Photo Credit: U.S. Army) VIEW ORIGINAL

 The U.S. Army Aberdeen Test Center’s Atmospheric Effects Team analyzes weather conditions to ensure testing is conducted safely and accurately on Aberdeen Proving Ground. ATC is a subordinate command to the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command and is the DOD’s lead agency for land-combat, direct-fire, and live-fire vulnerability testing.

Michael Padovani is a meteorologist with the ATC. Padovani previously worked for the National Weather Service and has been with the ATC since 2005. His duties involve fieldwork, instrumentation, traditional forecasting with weather models, and information technology.

The Atmospheric Effects Team comprises four people: two meteorologists, an electronic technician, and an engineering technician. According to Padovani, the team’s daily duties involve weather monitoring and producing short-term and medium-range forecasts at the beginning of the workday for ATC employees, many of whom conduct testing outdoors.

“The Atmospheric Effects Team plays an important part in making sure that testing happens safely and that the weather is accurately documented so we can understand the impacts on the systems being tested,” said Deirdre Cascardo, ATC public affairs specialist.

APG weather impacts testing 

Padovani said APG is a good location for testing because of the variety of seasons and weather patterns.

“APG provides the Army, our sister services, partner agencies, and allies the ability to test and evaluate within significantly varying conditions throughout the year,” said Mark Roderick, a meteorologist with the AET.

Weather variations include temperature swings of more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit, with temperatures just below 0 F on the coldest winter days to just above 100 F on the hottest summer days.

Another variation is the atmospheric moisture content. Seasonal and diurnal differences between coastal and inland locations on APG can also result in corresponding differences in temperature and wind.

“This makes APG unique compared to the rest of the Army’s test centers,” Roderick said.

Meteorologist Mark Roderick, with the U.S. Army Aberdeen Test Center Atmospheric Effects Team, uses the Four-Dimensional Weather System output to take notes on the model's forecasted temperatures, surface wind speed and direction, and...
Meteorologist Mark Roderick, with the U.S. Army Aberdeen Test Center Atmospheric Effects Team, uses the Four-Dimensional Weather System output to take notes on the model's forecasted temperatures, surface wind speed and direction, and precipitation accumulation. Roderick then uses information from the 4DWX to write a daily forecast for ATC employees, many of whom conduct testing outdoors. (Photo Credit: Photo by Sean Kief, CECOM Public and Congressional Affairs ) VIEW ORIGINAL

Cascardo said testing in different weather conditions allows the Army to find and fix design issues that result from operating in dust, mud, snow, and ice.

“Testing in different conditions ensures our systems will work anywhere our warfighters are deployed,” she said.

Using advanced technology to track and predict the weather

The ATC uses a network of permanent weather instruments, or data collection platforms, around APG North and South. The team is responsible for monitoring and troubleshooting the equipment in the field to ensure it is working properly.

“Some of this instrumentation is for wind, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, pressure,” Padovani said. “The information is being collected at various timed intervals, usually at five and 15-minute intervals.”

A new capability the team uses is present weather sensors. Roderick said these sensors can measure rainfall rates, which allows them to assess the risk of flash flooding while measuring total rainfall accumulations across the installation.

“With this information, we can better inform the base population of areas that are being impacted or that could potentially become inaccessible due to flooding,” Roderick said. “The sensors also provide us with current visibility and can depict what is causing a drop in visibility, whether it’s fog, smoke, haze, etc. This [ability] is helpful information to have when marine assets are needed for specific tests and target acquisition. Additionally, this data is collected every minute and databased to be used in studies such as groundwater and climatology of the post.”

Some ATC ranges have wind monitoring capabilities, which track wind direction, speed, and crosswinds. This state-of-the-art technology gives test officers accurate, real-time data, which is essential because certain tests, like those measuring ballistic conditions, require specific wind conditions to conduct.

“Real-time [data] is not always needed, but when it is, it usually is a factor in determining ‘go/no-go’s’ for firing,” Padovani explained. “For example, if a test has a crosswind limit of 5 mph, they’re going to need real-time winds down the line of fire. Providing that feedback to the test officer is important.”

Padovani said the AET also releases weather balloons instrumented with radiosondes. These instruments provide upper-air observations. Radiosondes attached to weather balloons collect information on temperature, humidity, wind, and atmospheric pressure.

‘A staple of Army technology’

The AET uses two versions of Weather Research and Forecasting models. WRF is a numerical weather prediction system for atmospheric research and weather forecasting. WRF models, used internationally at forecasting centers, allow researchers to produce simulations reflecting either real data or idealized atmospheric conditions.

Information from the WRF models feeds into ATC's Four-Dimensional Weather System, or 4DWX, one of the most advanced weather programs available for meteorological support. 4DWX was first developed approximately 20 years ago with the National Center for Atmospheric Research and continues to receive updates. It allows for rapid real-time data assimilation and visualization to provide the forecaster with the best data available to support the test effort. 4DWX technology was also used to analyze the potential exposure of U.S. troops to nerve agents during the first Gulf War and to support firefighters in Colorado and Arizona during summer wildfires in 2002.

“4DWX is a staple of Army technology,” Padovani said.

Padovani said 4DWX can provide detailed forecasts for APG North and South, typically up to six days in advance. In addition to predictions, 4DWX helps meteorologists find out what happened in the past by providing final analysis data.

“You can query that data back and actually find out what happened even if we don’t have a specific instrument at that location,” Padovani explained.

Padovani said that an important aspect to 4DWX's visualization capability on APG is lightning monitoring, which is critical to protecting life and property.

According to the National Weather Service, lightning is a significant cause of storm-related deaths in the U.S. Padovani said when lightning occurs within 10 miles of the installation, a lightning advisory is issued, and outdoor testing is stopped.

Weather impacts noise

Padovani said 4DWX is intertwined with the Noise Assessment Prediction System, a model that provides an assessment of noise levels that will result from testing activities. Since 4DWX is always assimilating observational data, the forecast routinely gets nudged to provide the most accurate prediction when running NAPS, which is operated by the ATC Environmental Office.

“The APG Garrison Noise policy lists a specific decibel level that we must maintain underneath that to be allowed to test,” explained Kimberley Fillinger, an environmental scientist with ATC. “We use the model to predict what the noise is going to look like for that particular day.”

Several factors can significantly influence how far sound travels from its source and how loud it will be. These factors include wind, temperature, topography, and humidity.

Padovani explained that temperature inversions and wind shear can cause testing to sound much louder than usual or be heard at greater distances. The inversion layer acts as a boundary for the sound, trapping it close to the ground.

Fillinger said tests are rarely canceled because the predicted noise stays below the noise policy levels. APG Garrison will send out a noise advisory on days when detonations are likely to generate sound or vibration outside the installation boundary.

Supporting the warfighter   

Roderick said he was drawn to serving as an Army civilian because his father served in the Army, and weather fascinated him from an early age. Roderick was interested in tracking the weather, especially when school was closed due to a snow day.

“My mom would joke, I knew what room you were in because when we turned on the TV, it was on the Weather Channel,” he laughed.

Roderick also wanted to learn more about the science and mathematics behind the weather. This interest led him to earn bachelor’s and master’s degrees in atmospheric science at the University of Massachusetts-Lowell.

Roderick started with ATC in 2018, part-time, in the Pathways Internship Program. In 2023, he joined the team full-time. He also serves as a first lieutenant with the Massachusetts Air National Guard as a staff weather officer. Roderick said he enjoys the variety of his work and especially appreciates the days he can work outdoors in the field. Knowing he can use his expertise to support the warfighter is also a big plus.

“I love the way that weather is injected into military planning and how we can support the decision-makers with weather and environmental intel,” he said.

Destructive Weather Group

Members of the ATC Atmospheric Effects Team lend their expertise and provide forecasting information to the APG Destructive Weather Group, which meets before a predicted destructive weather event, such as blizzards and tropical storms.

The Atmospheric Effects Team provides additional forecast information and unique local effects that supplement the National Weather Service forecast. This information is used to brief the APG Senior Commander and other leaders.

“Ultimately, a recommendation is made to the APG Senior Commander, who then decides what action should be taken,” Padovani said.

According to Padovani, APG’s preparation for a weather event can vary, depending on the anticipated storm. For example, during a snowstorm, personnel are mobilized for snow removal and ice melt is distributed to facilities. Other preparations can include checking and cleaning storm drains, securing exterior items, topping off fuel for generators, ensuring bottled water is available, and preparing shop equipment. The ability for the workforce and residents to safely enter and exit the installation is another big factor to be considered. Alerts are sent out to the workforce to keep informed.

Padovani said a major weather event requires significant coordination with APG Garrison, including fire, police, housing and child and youth services. Destructive Weather Group recommendations can occur early in the morning or later in the afternoon depending on the timing of the event, forecast confidence or severity.

“We are one piece but critical nonetheless at establishing what can be expected to ensure protection of life and property,” Padovani said.