THE ARMY UNIVERSITY, FORT LEAVENWORTH, Kansas – Described by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as the “Spine of the Book of the World”, South and Central Asia continue to be critical areas of interest to national security.
The last Cultural and Area Studies Office panel of the academic year, held March 19, 2024, discussed the impact these regions have on the U.S. - China relationships and global geopolitical environment.
Brent Christensen, Foreign Policy Advisor (POLAD) to the Commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, began the panel discussion describing the national security importance of the South and Central Asia region.
Home to more than a quarter of the world’s population; economic growth and strength; prominence in Global War on Terror; and presence of nuclear armed states, warrant special attention to the region, he explained.
India’s Neighborhood First Policy, much like China's desire to control it borders, drives many of the South Asia countries’ stability-focused decisions.
This policy, coupled with their non-alignment stance creates tensions with powers like Pakistan.
India continues to be a non-supporter of their largest neighbor’s grasps at border control, namely denouncing the Belt and Road initiative.
Simultaneously, India - U.S. relations continue to mature through engagements like India’s participation in the QUAD. Despite this, economic differences and ties to Russia keep the U.S. - India relationships from being considered fail-proof.
Central Asia has been a focus area of control for Russia and has gained more purposeful attention from China in recent years.
Lt. Col. Nathan Moore, former defense attaché to the Peoples’ Republic of Bangladesh at the U.S. Embassy in Dhaka, focused on the increased competition of India and China in South Asia.
“When we look at South Asia through the American prism, this competition is really between India and the PRC (People’s Republic of China)," he said.
Moore discussed the U.S.’s strategy regarding its relationships with India, often being ridiculed for placing too much emphasis or prioritization on the major power in this area.
However, it is a natural focus as one of four pieces of the QUAD strategy with the U.S., Japan and Australia.
India and China’s influence in the area can be seen in the “debt trap” that is Sri Lankea, which due to its need for support, has taken assistance in many forms from both China and India.
Bangladesh is very similar, Moore said, accepting support from both India and China in various forms. The country appears to balance accepting support from these polarizing powers with additional support from the U.S. and its partners like Japan.
China’s role reflects more infrastructure support of the region, while the U.S. is one of the highest grossing contributors to United Nations programs for nutritional assistance and maintenance of refugee camps, Moore explained.
While this is a physical presence of Chinese support in the region, China has begun introducing new influence.
“In practical terms, China’s help has been building power plants that keep lights on but what China has moved into in Bangladesh is being a peacemaker between Burma and Bangladesh,” Moore said. “The carrot they offer, and we’ve seen this a little bit in CENTCOM, is China as a mediator.”
Moore pointed out Nepal and Bhutan’s weight in the competition of large powers in the region, explaining the unstable governments of the countries create perfect conditions for a “Chinese land grab”.
“This competition is not just about us. We’re fitting into it. We need to fit into it well, but India is a rough neighbor,” he said. “It’s got pointy elbow sometimes. The democratic points we put forth don’t always ring true the same way in India.”
Dr. Robert Baumann, former Senior Education Advisor to the Armed Forces Academy of Uzbekistan, shared thoughts and analysis focused on the Central Asia region and the competition for influence within the area.
He began by explaining the historical nature and foundation of the area, which lays with the collapse of the Soviet Union and subsequent creation of the region’s independent countries.
“At the end of the Soviet Union these states had to begin inventing themselves as truly independent entities, no longer pieces of the Soviet Union,” Baumann said. “It meant creating their own brand, working on their own history with a new interpretation where desired end state is not being part of Russian civilization but in fact, the desired end state is a robust, independent culturally vibrant Uzbekistan or Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and so on.”
Baumann used the element of language to discuss the power of influence within the region, citing things like cinema as a way to see which cultures are prevalent.
For example, U.S. films presented in Russia, are common he said, with the Chinese influence in this particular area is being very low, and even struggling to infiltrate.
Russia also recognizes the influence of their language waning in the area and take steps to distribute Russian language instructors across the region attempting to reclaim influence.
However, the attempts seem to be unsuccessful, Baumann explained.
“People want to learn English. It is the language of choice around Tashkent,” Baumann explained. “One of the best business opportunities…is to create your own English language school.”
Where Chinese cultural influence lacks in Central Asia, they make up for economically, recently surpassing Russia in foreign investment like trade, Baumann said.
Things like the presence of Chinese-made electric cars and charging stations are greatly increased.
“The Chinese momentum in economic terms is certainly considerable,” he said.
The panel concluded with a question-and-answer session.
This panel is part of a seminar series discussing issues of operational and strategic importance to the U.S., which CASO in coordination with CGSC, universities, think tanks, interagency and other partners conduct every two to three months, which is also live streamed on CGSC's Facebook page.
The full event and past CASO panels can be viewed on the CGSC YouTube page: CGSC Intro Logo (youtube.com).
Additional photos of the event can be viewed on CGSC’s Flickr page: Command and General Staff College’s albums | Flickr.
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