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It is critical for the Defense Industrial Base to support requirements for all scenarios during peacetime but particularly during conflict. For JMC’s surge analysis, these contingency requirements are compared to capacities at all levels of the supply chain to determine if they can be met or where shortfalls may occur. The process starts with industrial base analysts reviewing requirements data from all services along with inventory data to assess which ammunition items are most likely to need a “surge” in production. Once these items are identified, their requirements are loaded into an automated analysis tool with the ability to conduct industrial base simulations utilizing the immense data for bills of material and production capacities for ammunition end-items and components throughout the supply chain. This analysis performs simulations, which will illuminate places in the supply chain where shortfalls occur.

Once the potential shortfalls are identified throughout the supply chain, additional analysis is performed by utilizing subject matter expertise and industrial preparedness planning data. This data is input into an automated modeling feature that is available to perform the analysis. The analysis investigates ammunition end items that are causing or driving identified shortfalls per their potential “surge” requirements. This data is communicated across the enterprise to stakeholders, as it can be useful in the support of developing ammunition acquisition strategies and budgets. This data can help direct the focus to the ammunition end-items that are causing potential production shortfalls throughout the supply chain in the event of a conflict and/or national emergency. The findings from this investigation can be used in support of the organic industrial base modernization efforts, by highlighting deficiencies in capabilities and capacities that are not adequate to meet potential “surge” requirements.

In addition, it is crucial for JMC personnel to understand the Industrial Base and to be aware and forward thinking with regards to the fragility within our supply chain. This includes reliance on foreign-sourced materials and single points of failure. Supply chain fragility is on DOD’s radar at the very highest levels. JMC is strategically engaged in exploring options to mitigate risk within our supply chain. These efforts include establishing sources of supply domestically for historically foreign-sourced items, understanding available funding streams to assist in establishing capabilities, creating analyses’ to understand the fragility and upstream impacts at the Department of Defense Identification Code level and creating strategic stockpiles. JMC has also created a method to analyze historical Total Munitions Requirement data to understand the variability and trends that could influence ammunition inventory in an effort to prevent shortfalls in the out years.

JMC is continually performing surge and supply chain analysis to assure that readiness is maintained to support warfighter requirements during peacetime and contingency operations.