Balancing Risk: The Tension Between Current and Future Demands

Army Actions to Mitigate Risk in 2006

Operational Risk

circle Completed transformation of 31 of 42 AC Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs) to modular designs and initiated the conversion of an additional four AC BCTs and 16 ARNG BCTs (based on Fiscal Year 2005 baseline).

circle Funded Reset ProgramReset
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 to repair over 4,100 tracked and wheeled vehicles and over 540 helicopters;

circle Continued Army Force GenerationAddendum H: Army Force Generation (ARFORGEN)
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(ARFORGEN) implementation to generate a continuous level of forces –  BCTs augmented by all enabling organizations – and to deploy additional, fully enabled BCTs, if required.

Future Challenges Risk

circle Transitioned effort to develop Future Combat Systems – which are on cost, on schedule, and meeting performance parameters – to System Development and Demonstration phase, moving us closer to fielding Future Combat Systems;

circle Manned and activated Army Evaluation Task Force to facilitate “spinning out” advanced technologies and systems to the current force.

circle Developed new Army Pre-Positioned StockBuilding Army Prepositioned Stocks
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 strategy to meet global requirements for agile, flexible forces;

circle Established Army Asymmetric Warfare OfficeArmy Asymmetric Warfare Office
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 to work with the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization to better understand and defeat asymmetric threats;

Force Management Risk

circle Implemented improvements to ARFORGEN to better manage our forces, and improve predictabilityStabilizing Soldiers and Units to Enhance Cohesion and Predictability
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for Soldiers and families.

circle Increased number of rebalancing actions to approximately 57,000 – reducing overstructure in certain areas, and increasing the availability of skills in greatest demand, such as Military Police, Civil Affairs, Infantry, and others.

circle Increased number of military-to-civilianMilitary-to-Civilian Conversions
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 conversions to approximately 7,170 – moving Soldier positions from our Generating Force to better structure and man our Operating Force;

circle Established reserve component RC Transient, Trainee, Holder and Student (TTHS) accountArmy Reserve: Trainees, Transients, Holdees and Students Account
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to improve readiness, deployability, training, and education opportunities;

Institutional Risk

circle Maintained focus on business transformation which is helping us to improve efficiency and effectiveness, to decrease cycle-time, to lower the cost of doing business –and to increase quality, productivity, and morale;

circle Implemented Lean Six Sigma methodology within all the Army Commands, the Direct Reporting Units,Army Service Components of Joint CommandsAdapting the Major Army Command Structure
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, and across Headquarters, Department of the Army.

circle Developed facilities support strategy to meet the target dates established by Base Realignment and Closure law, Global Defense Posture Realignment, and building the Army Modular Forces which requires the execution of approximately $38 billion in Military Construction and related projects between 2007 and 2013;

circle Initiated consolidating information technology servicesInformation Technologies
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 world-wide and implemented a range of initiatives to assure the availability of information to ensure network security.Information Assurance and Network Security
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circle Completed technology demonstration for General Fund Enterprise Business System to enable better financial management and decision making.

To be able to execute the National Defense Strategy (which includes the military requirements of the National Military Strategy),the Army must maintain readiness to deal with current challenges, while developing the capabilities to be ready for future challenges.  Now five years after 9-11, the Army continues to fight the long war with high levels of force deployment. 

This sustained demand for Army forces continues to exceed the demand envisioned in the National Defense Strategy established during the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review.  This level of demand is placing enormous strain on the Army’s All-Volunteer force.  Time between deployments for our active component has been steadily decreasing over the last five years, and is now approaching less than one year, on average.

The Army is incapable of generating and sustaining the forces required to wage the Global War on Terror, to respond to emerging challenges, and to sustain the full range of U.S. global commitments without all of its components – active, National Guard, and Army Reserve – fully available to deploy together.  At current levels of demand, without recurrent, assured, and predictable access to our reserve components, we will be unable to manage current and projected requirements for Army forces. 

The recent decisions by the President and the Secretary of Defense – to assure access to all components of the force – will fully enable our reserve components to perform their new role as an integral part of our operationally deployable force.  In addition, these new policies will facilitate the deployment of  our best led, and best equipped reserve units – as whole cohesive units.  We are working rapidly to implement these changes and will require continued Congressional support to do so

The decision to expand the size of the Nation’s ground forces reflects clear recognition on the part of the President, the Congress, and the Secretary of Defense of the dangers we face, the importance of our mission, and the stress our Soldiers, families, and Army Civilians are enduring.  This decision will enhance the depth and breadth of Army capabilities, yet will require several years and considerable resources to bring to fruition. Over time, the decision will alleviate strategic risk, as we assess it today.

In recent years, we have received considerable support to improve our capabilities; yet we still have much to accomplish to establish the levels of readiness – across all components of the force – needed to maintain risk at acceptable levels in wartime.

Since 9-11, we have used our resources carefully, making numerous decisions to allocate resources to immediate wartime needs, and to better prepare and protect our Soldiers.  We have drawn upon the entire Army to meet requirements for forces and equipment.  We have cancelled countless investment programs and deferred both maintenance and required investment in our infrastructure.  To free human and financial resources for our most compelling operational needs, we have undertaken major Army-wide business transformation initiatives.  We have also received the support needed to accelerate our schedule for modular conversion that will enable two Brigade Combat Teams to deploy much earlier than planned.

The combined effects of continuing high levels of strategic demand for Army forces, at home and abroad, compounded by longstanding deficits in equipment, modernization, and infrastructure investment place current and future readiness at risk.  In addition, our capacity to meet current force requirements, and to grow our forces, depends on adhering to an extremely complex, intricate schedule to realign our entire global infrastructure of bases, depots, arsenals, and other facilities.  Our ability to remain on schedule is jeopardized by our inability to execute a diverse range of military construction projects and supporting activities (e.g., environmental assessment studies and remediation projects).  Timely passage of military construction appropriations is required to stay on schedule and to prevent the effects of construction delays from cascading into many other areas of Army activity that will unintentionally put at risk our ability to accomplish our mission – to provide trained, ready forces to meet the Combatant Commanders’ needs. 

The Army will require additional base and supplemental appropriations to achieve the levels of readiness needed to fulfill the requirements of the National Defense Strategy.  Without sufficient resources, the Army cannot continue its current pace of operations and implement the changes required to prepare for the future – in the face of growing threats to the Nation posed by state and non-state extremist movements and organizations.

To build readiness to sustain the current mission, to remain relevant and ready to meet future challenges, and to maintain risk at acceptable wartime levels the Army needs to:











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